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Crypto Daybook Americas: PEPE Signals Altcoin Frenzy as Rampant Ether Outpaces Bitcoin

Crypto Daybook Americas: PEPE Signals Altcoin Frenzy as Rampant Ether Outpaces Bitcoin

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the crypto rally gathers pace ether has widened its lead over bitcoin in terms of volatility expectations, signaling relatively greater action not just in the second-largest cryptocurrency, but in the broader digital asset market as a whole.

Deribit’s ether implied volatility index (ETH DVOL), which represents the 30-day expected price turbulence, has shot up 11% to an annualized 7% this week while the bitcoin equivalent, BTC DVOL, held steady near multimonth lows around 45%, according to data source TradingView.

The divergence has widened the spread between the two to 27%, the most in at least two years. Clearly, traders are anticipating greater volatility in ETH and the broader altcoin market.

According to some observers, ETH has turned deflationary because the Pectra upgrade implemented this week has boosted on-chain activity and led to over 38,000 ETH burned or destroyed in the past 24 hours. Some market participants are buying higher strike ETH calls on Deribit in anticipation of continued price gains.

We could be on the verge of an altcoin season, as the BTC dominance rate looks to end its five-month-long uptrend. (Check out Technical Analysis).

In key news, American fast-food chain Steak ‘n Shake said Thursday it will begin accepting BTC as a payment mode at all U.S. locations starting May 16, allowing its 100 million customers to shop with the world’s biggest digital-asset token.

T-Rex, the Web3 consumer entertainment platform, which is backed by Portal Ventures, North Island Ventures, Framework Ventures and Arbitrum Gaming Ventures, raised $17 million in pre-seed financing.

Finally, just in case you missed it, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase agreed to buy the world’s largest crypto options exchange, Deribit, for $2.9 billion in cash and shares in the crypto industry’s largest ever M&A deal. Deribit controls over 80% of the activity, meaning Coinbase will be able to offer a full suite of spot and derivative products, boosting liquidity on the platform. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
  • Macro
    • May 9, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.56%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 5.48%
    • May 9, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases April employment data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.7%
      • Employment Change Est. 2.5K vs. Prev. -32.6K
    • May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 9: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market
    • May 12: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
    • May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market
    • May 14: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
    • May 14: IREN (IREN), post-market
    • May 15: Bit Digital (BTBT), post-market
    • May 15: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market
    • May 15: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • A Sei Network developer proposed ending support for Cosmos to simplify the blockchain and align more closely with Ethereum to reduce complexity and infrastructure overhead and boost Sei’s adoption.
    • May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
  • Unlocks
    • May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.08 million.
    • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $35.66 million.
    • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $57.45 million.
    • May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.14 billion.
    • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $17.7 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 9: OKX lists Jito with JITOSOL/USDT pair.
    • May 9: BitMart lists Minutes Network Token with MNTX/USDT pair.
    • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • PEPE is up more than 40% in the past 24 hours, outperforming most major tokens as traders continue to treat it as a high-beta ETH play — a speculative vehicle to gain outsized exposure to ether (ETH).
  • The memecoin has become a proxy for ETH upside since early 2024 because the PEPE price tends to react strongly to ETH narratives such as the recent Pectra upgrade, which preceded a 20% jump in the second-largest cryptocurrency.
  • Trading volumes for PEPE surged past $3.5 billion in the past 24 hours, several times more than Wednesday’s $500 million.
  • This marks one of the token’s strongest weeks in the past year and signals a return of risk appetite in the memecoin space.
  • Derivatives data shows rising open interest and funding rates for PEPE futures, suggesting a wave of leverage-fueled bets are targeting the frog-themed token in the hope of higher volatility ahead.
  • Meanwhile, Solana-based hippo token MOODENG rallied over 150%. The project, known for its absurdist branding based on a viral Thai hippo, is popular among Asian trader circles.
  • Cat-themed MOG also posted double-digit gains, but PEPE remains the most liquid and visible memecoin in the current ETH-beta trade.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC and ETH annualized futures basis on the CME has surprisingly held steady near 7% despite the price rallies. That could be a sign of market maturity as cash and carry arbitrage narrows price discrepancies.
  • On off-shore exchanges, perpetual funding rates for BTC, ETH and most major tokens are hovering between annualized 10% and 14%, reflecting a bullish bias.
  • In the options market, BTC and ETH risk reversals show call bias. Block flows featured a short position in the $95K put expiring on May 15 and calendar spreads in May and June expiries.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 1.19% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $102,725.44 (24hrs: +2.92%)
  • ETH is up 9.9% at $2,328.10 (24hrs: +20.03%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 4.59% at 3,116.42 (24hrs: +8.86%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 15 bps at 3.04%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance

Crypto Daybook Americas: PEPE Signals Altcoin Frenzy as Rampant Ether Outpaces Bitcoin

  • DXY is down 0.26% at 100.38
  • Gold is up 0.67% at $3,325.99/oz
  • Silver is up 0.45% at $32.60/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +1.56% at 37,503.33
  • Hang Seng closed +0.4% at 22,867.74
  • FTSE is up 0.48% at 8,572.92
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.38% at 5,308.85
  • DJIA closed on Thursday +0.62% at 41,368.45
  • S&P 500 closed +0.58% at 5,663.94
  • Nasdaq closed +1.07% at 17,928.14
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.37% at 25,254.06
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.8% at 2,557.27
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.38%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.11% at 5,690.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 20,193.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 41,445.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 63.94 (-0.80%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.2282 (6.79%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $55.50
  • Total Fees: 6.54 BTC / $655,033
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 149,545 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.86%

Technical Analysis

BTC's dominance rate. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • BTC’s dominance rate, or the largest cryptocurrency’s share of the crypto market, might soon drop below a trendline, characterizing BTC outperformance relative to the broader market since December.
  • The breakdown will likely mean the onset of the altcoin season.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $414.38 (+5.58%), up 1.75% at $421.65 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $206.5 (+5.06%), down 1.33% at $203.76
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $27.67 (+4.45%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.29 (+7.2%), down 1.33% at $14.10
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.44 (+7.65%), up 1.42% at $8.56
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.45 (+6.18%), up 2.54% at $9.69
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.68 (+8.09%), down 1.73% at $8.53
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.53 (+6.44%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.24 (+6.63%) , up 1.87% at $35.90
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.49 (+6.2%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flows: $117.4 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $40.81 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$16.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.47 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Overnight flows, May 9 2025 (CoinDesk)

Chart of the Day

The MOVE Index. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • The MOVE index, which measures the expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market that underpins global finance, has nearly reversed the late March to early April spike.
  • The decline supports increased risk-taking in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

ITE May 9 2025 (Scott Bessent/X)ITE May 9 2025 (Ryan Rasmussen/X)ITE May 9 2025 (Bitcoin For Corporations/X)ITE May 9 2025 (Bo Hines/X)ITE May 9 2025 (Santiment/X)

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